000
WTPA43 PHFO 230843
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026
 
Moke's overall organization has changed little during the past 
several hours. Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry 
mid-level air have eroded much of the convection that was present 
earlier, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Convective 
coverage remains limited, aside from occasional bursts of deep 
convection near and north of the center. Recent satellite-derived 
wind data showed peak winds of around 40 kt north of the 
circulation, while recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft data measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in 
the northeastern quadrant. These data, along with the overall 
satellite presentation, support maintaining the initial intensity at 
40 kt for this advisory.
 
Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 
280/10 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to 
continue during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level 
ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring 
the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island 
on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands 
thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the 
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the 
center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone 
is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds 
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next 
couple of days.
 
Moke has likely peaked in intensity over the past 24 h. Although
vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next
day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should
limit any chances for additional strengthening and likely cause Moke
to begin a steady weakening trend on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing
vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should
cause Moke to weaken further through early next week. By around 96
h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of
deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low
by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to 
impact the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Rain will then 
spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through 
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in 
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to 
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, 
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 15.2N 153.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.4N 155.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.8N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 16.3N 160.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 17.6N 165.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.1N 173.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs