Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

...Synopsis...
A deamplifying upper-level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
by Day 4/Tuesday as ridging continues across the southern CONUS,
generating some fire weather concerns for portions of the
central/northern High Plains on Day 3/Monday. Otherwise, a relaxing
mid/upper jet pattern will emerge across the northern U.S. next week
as stronger westerly flow aloft shifts into Canada. A less dynamic
upper trough should move into the northwestern U.S. by midweek, but
surface pressure response and resultant wind speeds will be muted
mitigating a broader scale fire weather threat. The upper trough
should also aid in suppressing subtropical moisture influx into CA
and the Great Basin, where mostly dry conditions will prevail.

...Day 3/Monday...
...Portions of the Northern High Plains...
A 65-75 knot mid-level jet associated with the eastward progressing
upper wave across the Northern Rockies will move into the Northern
Plains through Day 3/Monday. In response, a deepening lee surface
trough evolves across the central/northern Plains. Strong westerly
winds (15-25 mph) stretching from southern WY to the NE Panhandle
and low daytime RH will support a fire weather threat Monday.
Farther north, a similarly windy environment within dry,
post-frontal flow from the west-northwest, could also present fire
weather concerns across portions of northern WY, far southeastern MT
and parts of western SD. 40% critical probabilities have been
introduced for these areas as fuels remain receptive in the region.
There remains some forecast uncertainty in expected rainfall
distribution and amounts leading up to Monday, so the highlighted
threat area could change in subsequent outlooks.

...Southern Plains...
Persistent south winds each day are expected across portions of the
Southern Plains next week under a meandering upper ridge across the
southeastern U.S. Well above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to
lower 100s F will maintain a receptive fuelscape where rainfall was
minimized, primarily across southwestern OK and portions of
northwestern TX. However, ensemble guidance probabilities of surface
RH falling below 25% are low, reducing confidence in alignment of
southerly winds of 15-20 mph and suppressing a more significant fire
weather threat.

..Williams.. 09/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...