000
WTPZ43 KNHC 302042
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
200 PM MST Wed Sep 30 2026

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with conventional 
and microwave satellite imagery shows that Rachel has been 
re-organizing for the past several hours. Microwave data near 13Z 
indicated that the cyclone had a ragged inner core with no 
organized eyewall. During the time that the aircraft has been in the 
storm, the eyewall has gotten better defined in the southeastern 
semicircle and the radius of maximum winds is getting smaller.  The 
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the aircraft has been 
82 kt, and the central pressure is currently near 978 mb.  Based 
mainly on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is held at 75 
kt. It should be noted that shear analyses show that the hurricane 
is still be affected by about 20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind 
shear.

The initial motion is still northwestward or 315/7 kt. Rachel 
continues to move along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric 
ridge over northern and central Mexico.  This ridge is weakening 
due to the effects of a large mid- to upper-level trough seen in 
water vapor imagery over the southwestern United States and 
northwestern Mexico.  As this trough moves northeastward and 
weakens during the next couple of days, this should allow another 
ridge to build to the north of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, 
Rachel is forecast to turn west-northwest and pass well south of 
the Baja California Peninsula before continuing westward away from 
land. The new forecast track is a little to the north of the 
previous track for the first 60 h, and thereafter is similar to the 
previous track.
 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening through 
at least 48 h, and rapid strengthening is a possibility if the 
tighter inner core that Rachel is trying to develop maintains 
itself. Thus, the early portion of the intensity forecast keeps the 
same rate of intensification to a major hurricane as the previous 
forecasts. However, there remains two possible negative influences 
including the ongoing shear and Rachel crossing a track of cooler 
water left by Polo. Later on the forecast period, decreasing sea 
surface temperatures under the forecast track and dry air 
entrainment could cause some weakening. The new intensity forecast 
is again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies near the 
upper edge of the intensity guidance.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of
Mexico, wind gusts of tropical-storm force are possible along 
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will continue to produce locally heavy 
rainfall across portions of coastal southwest Mexico. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next several
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 18.8N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 19.1N 108.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 19.6N 109.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 19.9N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 20.0N 110.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 20.1N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 20.3N 113.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 20.6N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven