000
WTPA42 PHFO 042038
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  57
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026
 
Recent visible and infrared imagery show that outer rainbands have 
developed over the western semicircle, and Nolo is no longer 
exhibiting annular appearance. Shortly after the previous advisory, 
infrared imagery showed warming of the cloud tops and a thinning of 
the inner core convection over the southwestern quadrant. The eye 
has become more cloud filled and not as warm with an eye temperature 
around 7 C. A recent GMI microwave pass shows that the inner core is 
vertically aligned and perhaps the recent satellite degradation 
could just be a brief lull. Subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates range from 95 to 102 kt. Based on a blend of 
these data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt. Nolo 
is expected to continue being steered generally westward by a strong 
subtropical ridge located to its north. Over the next several days, 
the hurricane should maintain a similar or slightly slower forward 
speed along this heading. By the end of the forecast period, Nolo is 
forecast to reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge, 
which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn 
west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast 
is very similar to the previous and lies near the HCCA and GDMI 
track aids.
 
Nolo is currently situated within a favorable environment, with warm 
sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, some slight 
strengthening is possible over the next 18 to 24 hours. Between 24 
and 36 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of 
increasing vertical wind shear and a much drier mid-level airmass. 
The combination of strong shear and dry air entrainment will induce 
a steady weakening trend through the middle-to-end of the week. The 
NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance suite 
through the short term, leaning closest to the regional hurricane 
models, before trending back toward the various consensus aids by 
the end of the forecast period.
 
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan.
Advisories issued by RSMC Tokyo are found on the web at:
 
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm
 
For U.S. interests, see advisories issued by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. Advisories issued by JTWC
can be found on the web at:
 
www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 24.2N 180.0E  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly