Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few rotating thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
Florida Panhandle/far southern Alabama.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026/

...Florida Panhandle/Far Southern Alabama...
A nearly stationary surface front will reside across the Southeast
today, with a very moist airmass (total PWAT values of 2+ inches)
persisting along and to its south. Scattered showers/thunderstorms
will continue to develop south of the front this afternoon,
including across the northern Gulf. It is still possible that a weak
offshore surface low may form later today, with modest enhancement
to the low-level flow and effective SRH near a weak boundary draped
along or just offshore the FL Panhandle and far southern AL. Should
this occur, convection may have the potential to exhibit transient
low-level circulations mainly near the coast, with related
waterspout/brief tornado potential. However, the severe threat will
likely be constrained by poor lapse rates/weak instability, with
some guidance (namely recent RAP runs) suggesting that the modest
increase in low-level flow may not occur.