Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

A lingering upper-level ridge will undergo further suppression on
Day 4/Wednesday and Day 5/Thursday as the upper-level jet continues
to dive southward along its northeastern periphery. This pattern
looks to fully break down the high as yet another higher-amplitude
trough approaches the Pacific Northwest on Day 6/Friday. Forecast
guidance currently indicates that this system will introduce
increased winds, but also usher in cooler temperatures and
precipitation chances over the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies primarily on Day 7/Saturday and Day 8/Sunday.

On Day 7/Saturday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten ahead
of the aforementioned upper-level trough moving southeastward into
the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly flow ahead of this impending
trough is likely to support widespread strong surface winds
(sustained near 20 mph) amid above normal temperatures and dry
afternoon RHs near 10-20%. After several days of dry conditions and
above-normal temperatures through the coming week, fuels will be
conditioned for ignition across much of the central latitudes of the
western CONUS as this wind event approaches. Thus, an area of 40%
probability of Critical Wind/RH conditions have been introduced over
much of eastern and southern WY on Day 7/Saturday. Further expansion
may be necessary as the pattern evolution becomes more clear.

..Stearns.. 10/04/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...