Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot across
portions of the Southwest and Great Basin on Monday. An enhanced
midlevel jet streak associated with this system and lingering
boundary layer moisture will support showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity. Instability will remain weak, limiting severe
thunderstorm potential. 

Further northeast, a weak midlevel shortwave impulse will migrate
northeast from the central High Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS
Valley, flattening the central U.S. upper ridge. A weak surface low
over the Upper MS Valley will shift east through the Great Lakes,
and a trailing cold front will sweep southeast across the Upper
Midwest to the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary layer moisture will remain
modest, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest instability
atop midlevel capping across parts of central/southern WI. A few
elevated thunderstorms are possible within this modestly sheared and
weakly unstable environment ahead of the cold front. Small hail
could occur with the strongest storms. However, severe potential
appears too limited to include low probabilities at this time.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of
south/southeast TX within a low-level warm advection regime on the
western periphery of surface high pressure centered over the central
Gulf coast vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur as a cold
front develops south across southern FL and the Keys during the
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 10/10/2026