Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe weather is expected Monday through Monday night.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper shortwave trough will develop northeast from the central
High Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring a belt of
mildly enhanced westerly mid/upper flow across the region, with an
increasing southwesterly low-level jet expected by Monday evening
from the Mid-MS Valley into MI. At the surface, low pressure will
shift east across MN/WI/MI, with a trailing cold front surging
east/southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm
front will be oriented west to east across northern WI to northern
Lower MI. Elevated thunderstorms may develop by 00z near and north
of this boundary on the edge of the increasing low-level jet and
stronger warm advection ahead of the surface low/cold front. Cooling
aloft will result in a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
supporting modest elevated instability. Small hail may occur with
stronger updrafts within the modestly sheared environment across
northern WI/the U.P. of MI and portions of northern Lower MI during
the evening and overnight hours. Overall severe potential is
expected to remain limited by modest instability and capping across
the warm sector, precluding severe probabilities.

...Southwest/Great Basin...

Lingering moisture across the Southwest and Great Basin will support
scattered showers and thunderstorms within enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching upper low and attendant
trough. Meager destabilization will limit severe potential, though
some gusty winds are possible given stronger synoptic flow.

...Southern High Plains...

A few thunderstorms will be possible along a surface trough/dryline
across western TX/eastern NM as low-level moisture returns north and
west across the southern Plains. Modest vertical shear and weak
instability should limit severe potential, though some locally gusty
outflow winds are possible given steepened low-level lapse rates due
to daytime heating into the upper 80s/low 90s.

..Leitman.. 10/11/2026