Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected anywhere across the Contiguous
United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will prevail across the central CONUS as a weak 500 mb
cutoff low meanders off of the East Coast and broad, low-amplitude
upper troughing dominates the Interior West on Sunday. A surface
anticyclone will overspread the CONUS east of the MS River while
surface troughing occurs across the Great Plains. Despite this
surface troughing, medium-range guidance shows moist trajectories
across the Gulf oriented away from the U.S. shoreline, suggesting
that a stable airmass will remain over the CONUS. Therefore,
thunderstorm potential should be hindered over most locales. The one
exception may be southern FL into the Keys, where lingering
low-level moisture in a post-cold-frontal airmass may support
isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 10/16/2026