Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
this evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New
Mexico.

...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a minor shortwave trough moving
through the Desert Southwest. An associated mid-level jet is
analyzed by the RAP over northwestern Mexico and southeastern
Arizona. Lift associated with the jet is providing support for
scattered thunderstorm development this evening. Near the exit of
the jet, a small cluster of storms is ongoing from far southeast
Arizona into southwest New Mexico along the eastern edge of a
corridor of instability. Within this corridor, the RAP has SBCAPE
from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The RAP also has about 40 knots of 0-6 km
shear. This may be enough for an isolated threat for severe wind
gusts and hail for another hour or two this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/20/2026