Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central into southern New Mexico on Friday.

...New Mexico...
Steady mid-level height falls are expected across the Southwest in
the wake of a departing shortwave trough. Low-level moisture will be
maintained on the western edge of an expansive eastern surface
ridge. Sufficient surface heating will allow 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE to
develop during the afternoon (greater values with southward extent).
Cooling aloft, modest mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer
shear will support a mix of multicells and supercells. Large hail
and isolated severe gusts will be the main concerns within parts of
central New Mexico.

..Wendt.. 10/21/2026