Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will slowly progress over the Rockies on
Friday, with a lead mid-level impulse poised to eject into the
northern Plains while a lagging 500 mb cut-off low drifts eastward
across the Desert Southwest. Given adequate low-level moisture
return and deep-layer ascent ahead of the longwave mid-level trough,
thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Rockies and the
central to northern Plains. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible across portions of NM, where locally greater moisture and
instability reside.

...Western into central New Mexico...
As the aforementioned leading mid-level impulse departs the Rockies
and the cut-off low approaches NM, 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
will overspread the Desert Southwest, where low to mid 50s F surface
dewpoints amid southeasterly surface flow will be in place. Given
7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may
manifest amid appreciably curved and elongated hodographs, with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. By afternoon,
thunderstorms should develop and intensify with diurnal heating.
Given the aforementioned vertical shear/buoyancy, some supercell
structures should develop, accompanied by an isolated severe
wind/hail threat, and a tornado is also possible.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026