Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind/hail or a tornado are possible across portions
of central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level cut-off low will traverse the Desert Southwest and
impinge on the southern High Plains on Saturday. This will provoke a
low-level mass response in the form of northwestward moisture
advection through the day. Cooler temperatures and stronger flow
aloft associated with the cut-off low will overspread the low-level
moisture, resulting in enough buoyancy and shear overlap to support
an isolated severe threat.

...Portions of central NM into Far West TX...
Through the afternoon, 40-50 kt south-southwesterly mid-level flow
and 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates from the approaching cut-off low
will overspread mid to upper 50s F surface dewpoints and backed
southeasterly surface winds. With surface heating of the
aforementioned moist low-level airmass, MLCAPE may exceed 1000 J/kg,
perhaps locally exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots given locally greater
insolation. Veering and strengthening flow with height will yield
modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of
effective bulk shear expected. Multicells and perhaps a couple of
supercells may develop and persist for at least a few hours before
merging into a loosely organized line of thunderstorms. Storms
should be at their strongest during their supercell stage, capable
of producing isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/22/2026