Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of New
Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend across much of the
western CONUS early Friday morning. Several shortwave troughs will
be embedded within the larger scale troughing, including one moving
northeastward across the eastern Great Basin towards western WY, one
moving through the base of the parent trough across southern CA and
another dropping quickly southward across the Sierra toward central
and southern CA. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward through western WY and eastern MT before interacting
with an intensifying shortwave trough moving across the Canadian
Prairies. Evolution and interaction between the southernmost
shortwaves is expected to yield a closed cyclone centered over the
Lower CO Valley by early Saturday morning. 

This overall evolution will foster a persistence of the deep
southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains. The overall troughing will have a
slight positive tilt, but the mean eastward shift will foster modest
height falls during the afternoon and evening across the Southwest.
These height falls, and associated southerly low-level flow, will
support scattered to numerous thunderstorms across NM, including the
potential for some strong to severe storms. Additional thunderstorms
appear likely near the embedded cold core as it moves across the
northern Intermountain West, and within a band of warm-air advection
farther east across the Upper MS Valley.

...New Mexico...
As mentioned in the synopsis, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
persist across the NM throughout the period. At the same time, a
seasonably moist airmass will advect northward in the region.
Uncertainty exists regarding potential heating and mixing of this
moistening airmass, with some guidance notably more cloudy and less
mixed. Current expectation is for the greatest potential for heating
and mixing to remain over southern portions of the state, with more
clouds and less heating with northern extent. 

Even with this limited heating, moist low to mid-levels and cool
mid-level temperatures will still support modest buoyancy across
northern/central NM, beginning early Friday morning. Multiple rounds
of thunderstorms are possible across this region, with the
combination of modest buoyancy and strong deep-layer vertical shear
supportive of organized updrafts. Hail will be the primary risk,
with isolated strong gusts possible as well. Given the potential for
supercells and moist low-levels, a low-probability tornado risk
exists as well.

Stronger heating and warmer temperatures appear more likely farther
south, which will combine with greater low-level moisture support
greater overall buoyancy and a relatively higher chance for
organized updrafts capable of large hail and strong gusts. Some
questions exist on how much low-level moisture will be in place
(i.e. low 50s dewpoints vs. upper 50s/low 60s), but the higher
dewpoint solutions suggest overall profiles supportive of very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2"+) and tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/22/2026