Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Tue-Sat
period. An upper shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, a
low-amplitude and weak mid/upper flow regime will overspread much of
the central/southern Plains toward the eastern U.S. Strong surface
high pressure over the East and prior cold frontal passages across
parts of the Plains will result in only modest boundary layer
moisture beneath the progressive mid-week upper shortwave trough.

Later in the period, upper troughing will deepen across the western
U.S. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper ridge is expected across the
East, resulting in broad southwesterly mid/upper flow across the
Plains. Some modest moisture return could occur across the Plains
within the southwesterly flow regime, but any deep moisture is
forecast to remain confined across TX and the Gulf Coast. While
periods of thunderstorms are possible late in the period across the
Plains, overall severe potential is likely to remain limited due to
a lack of focused large scale ascent and a modest thermodynamic
environment.