Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND LOCALLY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated hail threat will be possible this
evening over parts of central and northeast Kansas. A brief tornado
will be possible in parts of southwest Texas early this evening.

...Central and Northeast Kansas...
An anticyclonic flow pattern is evident over much of the central U.S
on water vapor imagery. At the surface, a stalled front is located
in central Kansas extending eastward into southern Illinois. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are developing near the front in central
Kansas in a moderately unstable airmass according the RAP, with
MLCAPE estimated to be around 2000 J/kg. Near the pocket of stronger
instability, the RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 6.5 to 7 C/km
range along with enough deep-layer shear for cell rotation. This
could be sufficient for a hail threat with the strongest of cells
this evening, as storms move and develop northeastward from central
Kansas into northeast Kansas...see MCD 2419.

...Southwest Texas...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
northern Mexico. Ahead of this feature, pockets of large-scale
ascent are evident over parts of Texas, where widespread
precipitation is ongoing. Weak instability is analyzed by the RAP
over parts of southwest, west and northwest Texas. The strongest
low-level flow is located over the western Texas Hill Country, where
RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 225 m2/s2 and surface dewpoints near 70 F. This
could be enough for a brief tornado with low-topped cells that
rotate within the moist airmass over the next couple more
hours...see MCD 2418.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2026