FZPN01 KWBC 011651

HSFEP1



HIGH SEAS FORECAST...SECOND CORRECTION FOR ROSA IN SYNOPSIS

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1630 UTC MON OCT 01 2018



SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS



SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY

BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



SEE ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED INMARSAT I-3 TO I-4 MIGRATION

IN 2018 AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/GMDSS_NOTICE.PHP (LOWERCASE).



ONLY YOU KNOW THE WEATHER AT YOUR POSITION. REPORT IT TO THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. EMAIL US AT

VOSOPS@NOAA.GOV(LOWERCASE).



PAN PAN



PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT

TO 50N 160E



SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC OCT 01.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 02.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC OCT 03.



.WARNINGS.



...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.LOW W OF FORECAST AREA 48N157W 972 MB MOVING NE 30 KT. OVER

FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 50 TO 65 KT.

SEAS 20 TO 36 FT. ALSO WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 480 NM SE QUADRANTS

WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 480 NM NE

AND 660 NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW JUST NW OF AREA 57N173E 959 MB. WITHIN 300

NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. ALSO WITHIN

360 NM NE...840 NM SE...AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 30 TO 40

KT. SEAS 12 TO 21 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 960 NM SE AND 1260 NM SW

QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 56N177E 954 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND 360

NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 36 FT. ALSO WITHIN

180 NM NE...600 NM SE...AND 660 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40

KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM NE...780 NM

SE...AND 1320 NM SW QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.





...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 53N163W 984 MB MOVING N 10 KT AND WILL TURN NW AFTER 12

HOURS. WITHIN 360 NM SW SEMICIRCLE...BETWEEN 180 NM AND 540 NM

NE SEMICIRCLE... AND WITHIN 360 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 30 TO 40

KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT...EXCEPT 9 TO 18 FT BETWEEN 180 NM AND 540

NM NE SEMICIRCLE. ALSO OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 660 NM

NW...SE...AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18

FT...EXCEPT 8 TO 14 FT NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 780 NM S

QUADRANT WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 18 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 59N167W 994 MB. WITHIN 420 NM SE AND

BETWEEN 360 NM AND 540 NM E QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8

TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N...600 NM E...AND 780 NM SE

QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT...EXCEPT TO 9 FT N

QUADRANT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A

LINE FROM 55N158W TO 44N166W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 21

FT. ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 57N158W TO

64N171W WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 600

NM SE OF A LINE FROM 58N156W TO 46N175W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS

8 TO 14 FT.



...GALE WARNING...

.OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 40N163W TO 30N167E AREA

OF N TO NE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW LOW 32N168W 1009 MB. WITHIN 480 NM N AND

540 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.

ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12

FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 31N169W 1010 MB. S OF 38N BETWEEN 160W AND

180W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST

S OF 37N BETWEEN 170W AND 178W.



...GALE WARNING...

.LOW 49N127W 1004 MB DRIFTING NE. WITHIN 420 NM NW AND 240 NM SW

QUADRANTS WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 49N125W 1005 MB. WITHIN 660 NM NW AND 120

NM SE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.

.30 HOUR FORECAST LOW 50N125W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM W AND NW

QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. FROM 45N TO 56N BETWEEN 130W

AND 145W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT...HIGHEST FROM 45N TO

56N BETWEEN 136W AND 145W.



.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.



.TROPICAL STORM ROSA S OF AREA. OVER FORECAST WATERS S OF 31N

AND E OF 122W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA E OF AREA. S OF 31N

AND E OF 117W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ROSA INLAND AND ASSOCIATED

CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.



.LOW 37N133W 1003 MB MOVING E 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM

30N TO 40N BETWEEN 136W AND 149W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 37N128W 1004 MB. FROM 30N TO 43N BETWEEN

129W AND 138W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 33N126W 1006 MB. FROM 30N TO 39N BETWEEN

128W AND 137W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.



.LOW NW OF FORECAST AREA 60N176E 994 MB MOVING NE 10 KT. OVER

FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

SEAS TO 12 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED. CONDITIONS DESCRIBED WITH LOW

57N173E IN WARNINGS SECTION ABOVE.



.48 HOUR FORECAST OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 59N BETWEEN 144W AND

153W AREA OF E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.



.DENSE FOG. VSBY OCCASIONALLY LESS THAN 1 NM OVER FORECAST

WATERS FROM 42N TO 50N W OF 164E.

.24 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE

FROM 39N161E TO 44N167E TO 42N175E TO 48N177W TO 54N176W.

.48 HOUR FORECAST DENSE FOG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE

FROM 46N167W TO 52N162W.



.HIGH 57N146W 1019 MB MOVING E 10 KT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.



.HIGH 33N122W 1014 MB NEARLY STATIONARY.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.



.HIGH 32N158W 1020 MB MOVING NE 30 KT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH DISSIPATED.



.HIGH 39N174E 1026 MB MOVING SE 10 KT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 36N179E 1027 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 33N170E 1025 MB.



.24 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 44N158W 1025 MB.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HIGH 41N149W 1026 MB.



.48 HOUR FORECAST NEW HIGH 40N169E 1024 MB.



.FORECASTER FIGURSKEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL



E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE

EQUATOR E OF 120W



SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC MON OCT 1.

24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC TUE OCT 2.

48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED OCT 3.



.WARNINGS.



...HURRICANE WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM SERGIO NEAR 11.5N 109.5W 995 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT

01 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT

GUSTS 75 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM E

SEMICIRCLE...0 NM SW QUADRANT AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT

OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120

NM SW QUADRANT...AND 200 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 24 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 11.4N 111.2W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE...80 NM NW QUADRANT AND 40 NM SW

QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 90 NM SW

SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 26 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 18N BETWEEN

105W AND 115W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 11.7N 113.4W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WITHIN 130 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 100 NM NW

QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM SW

SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO 31 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN

105W AND 115W WINDS 20 TO 33 FT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 13.3N 116.8W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 12 FT OR

GREATER WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS TO

36 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W WINDS 20

TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.72 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 15.3N 119.3W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.

.96 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 17.0N 121.8W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT GUSTS 115 KT.

.120 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE SERGIO NEAR 18.0N 124.3W. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT.



...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...

.TROPICAL STORM ROSA NEAR 27.5N 116.5W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC OCT

01 MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT

GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 110 NM NE

QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...50 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW

QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND

180 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N

E OF 120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL.

.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA NEAR 31.3N 114.3W.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. OVER OPEN PACIFIC

WATERS FROM 28N TO 30N E OF 116W NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS

THAN 8 FT. OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

SEAS TO 10 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL ROSA WELL INLAND NEAR 37.0N

112.0W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15 KT GUSTS 20 KT. OVER FORECAST

WATERS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

.72 HOUR FORECAST...DISSIPATED.



FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE

USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE AND

INTENSITY.



.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.



.WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14.5N96W...

INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS

8 TO 9 FT.

.12 HOUR FORECAST WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN

8 FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W

TO 14.5N96W...

INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS

8 TO 9 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W

TO 14.5N96W...

INCLUDING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS

8 FT.



.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.



CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC MON OCT 1...



T.S. ROSA...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 115W

AND 118W.



T.S. SERGIO...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 270 NM

OF CENTER.



.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 11N100W...AND FROM 16N120W

TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM

13N96W TO 14N102W.



$$



.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


Source: OPC N Pacific High Seas Forecast (corrected)