SPC MD 1575
MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... FOR SOUTHEAST NE...NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO

Mesoscale Discussion 1575
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...southeast NE...northeast KS...southern
IA...northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

Valid 102204Z - 102330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated hail and damaging wind may
persist into the early evening. There is some potential for
redevelopment northwest of the ongoing storms.

DISCUSSION...A compact mid/upper-level low will continue moving
south-southeastward across Iowa into this evening. Strong to
occasionally severe storms that earlier developed across southwest
IA are moving into northern MO late this afternoon. Storms have
struggled to remain organized thus far, likely due to marginal
effective shear (generally 20-30 kt). However, moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg) and seasonably cool temperatures
aloft could support occasional hail potential with the strongest
updrafts. Rather extensive outflow has developed in the wake of
these storms, which could support an isolated damaging-wind threat
with any stronger storms along or just behind the gust front. 

Farther northwest into eastern NE, there is less influence from
convective outflow, with moderate buoyancy expected to persist into
early evening. While the surface pattern is rather nebulous,
additional development is underway across the northwest portion of
WW 519, and also just to the west of the watch, which could pose a
threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. Trends will continue to
be monitored for the potential need of local watch expansion to the
north and west of WW 319.

..Dean.. 07/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   41029776 41489601 40999502 40639341 40799184 40229147
            39679146 39319247 39499482 39629604 39809672 40089727
            40209756 41029776 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1575.html