Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado threat may persist into Thursday across
parts of the Deep South. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will
be possible over the northern High Plains vicinity on Thursday
afternoon and evening.

...Deep South/TN Valley...
TC Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase on
Thursday as it tracks northward across parts of the Lower MS Valley
to Mid-South. Model consensus suggests the bulk of strong low-level
wind fields will become increasingly confined within the northeast
quadrant of the cyclone. This will yield decreasing low-level
hodograph curvature through the period, initially along the
central/northeast Gulf Coast and gradually expanding northward. This
will result in decreasing overlap of favorable SRH with rich
tropical moisture, characterized by 70s surface dew points. Tornado
potential may be less than on D2, but should still have a diurnal
morning to afternoon peak before diminishing during the latter half
of D3. Confidence is low with the northern extent of the
low-probability tornado threat, which will likely contain scant
surface-based instability coincident with moderate to large SRH. The
TN Valley vicinity appears to be the northern demarcation.

...Eastern MT to western Dakotas...
The northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough should shift
east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday
evening. Guidance has above-average consistency with the depiction
of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jet
impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to
early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear, becoming favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating.
Two convective regimes are apparent, one within the post-frontal
upslope flow regime in central to eastern MT and the other near the
lee surface trough/cyclone close to the MT/Dakotas border area.
Isolated large hail will be favored in the western regime, while
isolated severe gusts should be favored east. The primary limiting
factor to greater severe probs is progged weak buoyancy, with
pre-convective surface dew points around the upper 40s to low 50s.

..Grams.. 09/10/2024