Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity. Isolated small to marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible.

...Arizona...

An upper low will develop over AZ as an upper trough develops east
toward the Four Corners region on Friday. This will bring a belt of
moderate southerly deep-layer flow over the Southwest. At the
surface, a moist axis will spread across southern AZ on
southwesterly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing front.
This may support a narrow corridor of organized thunderstorm
potential from near the Phoenix vicinity southward during the
morning and early afternoon hours as sufficient instability overlaps
strong deep-layer flow. If current trends persist, a marginal risk
for strong gusts and hail may be needed in subsequent outlooks,
though the overall corridor both spatially and temporarily appears
fairly small. 

...Southern High Plains...

Southeasterly low-level flow will gradually transport modest Gulf
moisture southwestward across west TX into eastern NM through the
period. Mid/upper level south/southwesterly flow will also gradually
increase through the day as the western upper trough approaches the
Four Corners vicinity. However, as the upper low develops over AZ,
the core of stronger flow aloft will remain west of the region.
Nevertheless, low-level convergence along a weak surface
trough/dryline is expected during the late afternoon into evening.
Vertically veering wind profiles will result in effective shear
magnitudes around 25-30 kt, supporting marginal supercells. Midlevel
lapse rates will remain modest, and MLCAPE will generally be less
than 750 J/kg, but any better organized cell could produce locally
strong gusts or marginally severe hail during the evening.

..Leitman.. 10/16/2024