Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into
northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on
Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the
southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending
from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX
Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to
be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This
activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the
surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with
southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning
thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves
southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited
instability and modest vertical shear.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across Florida and coastal
Georgia where persistent easterly flow will continue to advect
somewhat richer low-level moisture inland. In addition to this
activity, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across
Georgia and the Carolinas as isentropic ascent increases with a
modest low-level jet response ahead of the approaching mid-level
trough. Predictability remains low with this potential as the
mid-level vorticity maximum will trail well behind the cold front.
Weak upper-level support combined with relatively weak isentropic
ascent is the primary limiting factor for severe weather potential
across Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2024