Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS....

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central U.S. and deepen Friday as
an associated mid-level speed max intensifies over the central
Plains. A deepening surface low and a strong cold front will promote
critical fire weather conditions over the southern Plains. A second
shortwave impulse will exit the eastern U.S. supporting above normal
temperatures and some lingering dry/breezy conditions over the
central Appalachians and Carolinas.

...TX/NM...
As the primary shortwave trough over the Great Basin begins to eject
eastward, strong flow aloft will overspread the southern High
Plains. The surface low in eastern CO is forecast to deepen as it
lifts northeastward, dragging the front southward. Gusty southwest
surface winds, bolstered by westerly flow aloft, will develop across
eastern NM, into the TX/OK Panhandles by mid morning. Gusts of 30-40
mph are possible. Warm temperatures west of the dryline will support
RH minimums below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions
are likely within dry fuels.

Farther north, gusty post-frontal winds are possible over parts of
southwestern KS and the central Plains. RH values will climb quickly
through the day as temperatures cool. Brief elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible where fuels have remained dry. The front
will continue to move south into TX/OK/NM Friday afternoon and into
the evening. This will likely result in a rapid wind shift which
could locally exacerbate burning conditions briefly. Adjustments to
the northern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas could also be
necessary as uncertainty on frontal timing is reduced in subsequent
updates.

...Central Appalachians...
In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, flow aloft is
forecast to weaken over much of the Appalachians. Still, residual
westerly flow may encourage lee troughing, helping to bolster
downslope winds to near 10 mph. With very warm/dry surface
conditions expected with subsequent mid-level ridging, low afternoon
RH is expected. This, in combination with no recent rainfall and
critical fuels, should support a few hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions from VA, into the western Carolinas.

..Lyons.. 04/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...