Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071700Z - 081200Z

...Morning Update...
A deep, dry airmass aloft was depicted in the 12z TBW sounding.
Clear skies across the FL Peninsula are promoting rising
temperatures and ample boundary layer mixing. Current surface
observations portray sporadic wind gusts of 15-20 mph along the FL
First Coast and sustained winds increasing to 10 mph. Relative
humidity will quickly decline this afternoon as maximum temperatures
approach the low-mid 90s F where 95-98th percentile ERCs exist,
supportive of an Elevated fire weather threat. See the previous
discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough and attendant strong mid-level southwesterly
flow will progress eastward into the eastern CONUS today. A related
cold front and associated rainfall will near the Southeast Coast by
this afternoon. Elevated west to southwest winds south of the
advancing front amid low relative humidity and dry fuels will bring
a fire weather threat to portions of FL today. An upper ridge
building over the western U.S. will promote warm and dry conditions
across the region today.

...Florida Peninsula...
West to southwest winds of around 10 mph with higher gusts across
northern FL will evolve within a tightening pressure gradient
manifested by an advancing cold front to the north. Near record high
surface temperatures within a dry and well-mixed boundary layer
reaching the lower to middle 90s F, will promote afternoon RH of
25-35% across inland and eastern portions of the FL Peninsula.
Numerous active wildfires are present across northern FL amid a very
dry and drought stressed fuelscape. The dry conditions combined with
an emerging steady west to southwest wind late morning through the
afternoon will support an Elevated fire weather threat in portions
of northeastern and east-central FL Peninsula.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...