Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...Synopsis...
A robust upper-level short wave trough and associated increased
west-southwest flow aloft will enter the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies today. Wedged between western U.S. troughing and an
amplifying longwave trough over the eastern U.S., upper ridging will
slide over the Rocky Mountain region. Associated with the
substantial mid-upper level pattern, a rapidly evolving lee-side low
in the southern Canadian Prairies will deepen lee surface troughing
over the Great Basin and High Plains while southwesterly flow ahead
of the trough increases. This will present a multifaceted fire
weather setup across portions of the Intermountain West. 

...Northern Montana...
Deepening surface troughing across the southern Canadian Prairies
into central MT will usher in stronger southerly to southeasterly
winds of 15-20 mph along with RH reductions of 20-30 percent,
promoting broad Elevated fire weather concerns. Critical highlights
were maintained where an alignment of RH of 20 percent or below and
winds of 20-25 mph are expected across northeastern MT and far
western ND atop receptive fuels. Increasing mid-level moisture ahead
of the upper trough and arrival of a Pacific cold front should
promote isolated to scattered showers and initially high-based
thunderstorms across much of northwestern MT Wednesday where IsoDryT
highlights have been maintained. 

...Southwest, Upper Snake River Plain and Colorado River Basin...
As the sharp upper trough and associated mid-level jet shifts over
ID into western MT, deepening surface troughing across the northern
Great Basin and stronger southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will
bring expansive fire weather concerns to much of the Intermountain
West. Dry and breezy southwesterly flow of 15-25 mph (localized 30
mph in the eastern Great Basin) and RH of 10-15 percent will align
with drying fuels to promote elevated fire weather conditions across
portions of the Great Basin and CO River Basin into central WY.
Forecast thermodynamic profiles (with a prominent dry boundary
layer) will support isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms
over higher terrain of western NM, far eastern AZ, central UT, and
southwest WY into the Upper Snake River Plain. Various stages of
green up and mixed curing fuels has resulted in a complicated
fuelscape, resulting in expansive Elevated highlights and a broader
IsoDryT risk area.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...