Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

Nearly zonal flow will be in place across much of the eastern US on
Day 3/Saturday. Meanwhile, a trough will move over the Intermountain
West. By Day 5/Monday, this trough will center over the central
Rockies, before ejecting to the north and east across the central
Plains. This will present multiple consecutive days of likely
Critical fire weather over portions of the Southwest and southern
Plains. The pattern then flattens as next week progresses, leading
to less certainty of potential fire weather concerns given the
colder air across much of the CONUS in the wake of the trough.

...Southwest/Southern Plains/Southern Great Basin...
On Day 3/Saturday through Day 5/Monday, the aforementioned
significant middle-level trough will promote multiple consecutive
days of Elevated to Critical fire weather across much of the
Southwest and adjacent southern Plains and southern Great Basin.
Warm and dry antecedent conditions amid the above normal
temperatures associated with the recent ridging will precondition
the area for potential ignitions. Southwest to westerly winds
sustained at 20-30 mph will combine with single digit to low teen
RHs for several hours. Current forecast guidance suggests that
overnight RHs will struggle to rise above 30% over much of the
region, suggesting burn periods well into the nighttime hours.

On Day 6/Tuesday, as the trough begins to recede to the north,
stronger winds aloft will linger over New Mexico and combine with
dry surface conditions to promote some threat of critical weather
conditions over the region for yet another day.

...California...
On Day 4/Sunday, northwest flow on the back side of the trough as it
digs over the Great Basin will lead to strong (20 mph sustained)
northerly winds combined with afternoon RHs in the teens over the CA
Central Valley. Thus, given the anticipated dry fine fuels in place
amid the warm and dry antecedent conditions, the 40% probs were
maintained to account for the potential fire weather threat.

..Stearns.. 05/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...