Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A trough will deepen and shift eastward across the Pacific Northwest
D4/Tuesday-D5/Wednesday. As the upper low slowly shifts eastward,
stronger flow will overspread the Intermountain West into the
Northern Rockies which will result in strengthening lee troughing
across the central/northern Plains. Moisture advection will spread
northward with the strengthening southerly flow across the
central/northern Plains.  Severe storms may occur each day across
some portion of the northern and northern/central High Plains. In
addition, strengthening southern stream flow may bring stronger
storms across the Sierra Madre which may bring severe potential into
portions of far southern Texas. For now, confidence in exact
corridors of greater severe potential remains low. 

By D6/Thursday-D8/Saturday, guidance suggests the western low
becomes cut off and slowly wobbles towards the Great Basin before
becoming absorbed back into the northern stream, likely due to the
high amplitude ridging across the central. Some severe potential may
extend into the eastern US as a cold front shifts southward as flow
enhances in the trough across Quebec in the D6-D7 period.