000
WTPZ42 KNHC 082034
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022026
300 PM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
 
Although the cloud tops have generally been warming, likely due to a 
diurnal fluctuation, Boris is exhibiting some limited convective 
banding features.  Overall, however, the system has not become 
significantly better organized since earlier today.  The current 
intensity estimate is 40 kt based on scatterometer data.  Bands of 
heavy showers and thunderstorms have been spreading across the 
coastline of southern Mexico in the northeastern quadrant of the 
circulation.  
 
Based on an ASCAT overpass, the center of Boris was repositioned at 
18Z to the south of the previously estimated track.  The motion 
appears to be generally northeastward, or 050/3 kt.  A turn toward 
the north and northwest is likely during the next day or so due to a 
mid-level ridge building to the northeast of the cyclone.  The 
official forecast track is between the simple and corrected 
dynamical model consensus but leans toward the latter solution.

Since the inner core of Boris is not that well defined and the storm 
is being influenced by significant easterly vertical wind shear, 
little change in strength is likely before landfall.  After its 
center crosses the coast, Boris should weaken and soon dissipate 
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The threat of very heavy rainfall continues to be the primary hazard 
of concern with this slow-moving system, which should result in 
flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Boris will impact
portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall will likely produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of
southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight or
early Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 15.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N  99.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  10/0600Z 17.7N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch