584 
WTPZ43 KNHC 090234
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
900 PM CST Mon Jun 08 2026
 
Another burst of deep convection has formed near and to the south of 
Cristina, obscuring the low-level circulation that was evident 
earlier, though the tropical storm continues to battle significant 
northerly vertical wind shear. There has not been much change to 
the subjective or objective intensity estimates, ranging from 31-43 
kt, and the initial intensity for this advisory is held at 40 kt.
 
After moving northward earlier today, fixes from geostationary and 
microwave imagery indicate that Cristina has slowed down 
substantially, and its current estimated motion is 360/2 kt. The 
track forecast continues to present a conundrum. Cristina moved 
closer to the coast than anticipated earlier today, likely due to 
its exposed center moving along with the strong monsoonal low-level 
flow. With deep convection forming over the center this evening, it 
has slowed its forward progression, and much of the track guidance 
shows very little short-term motion. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge 
remains located north of Cristina and may help to impart a slow 
northwestward motion. However, the track guidance is not in good 
agreement, with the Google DeepMind and GFS showing a southward 
component of motion, while the ECMWF and HAFS-A/B show northward 
solutions that quickly move Cristina inland over Central America. 
The NHC track forecast leans toward these latter solutions, showing 
a very slow motion over the next day or so, but eventually bringing 
Cristina inland along the coastline of El Salvador between 36-48 
hours. Given the spread in model solutions, this is a low confidence 
track forecast.
 
Cristina is not very well organized due to the storm dealing with 
35-40 kt of northerly vertical wind shear as diagnosed by SHIPS 
guidance. While this shear is expected to gradually decrease over 
the next couple of days, proximity to land, especially the high 
mountains of Central America, could also keep Cristina's intensity 
in check. The majority of the intensity guidance shows little 
intensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now only has 
Cristina maintaining its intensity while it remains just offshore. 
If Cristina is able to move further away from the coast over warm 
sea-surface temperatures and a moist environment, some 
intensification remains possible, as suggested by the GFS model. 
Assuming Cristina moves inland beyond 48 hours, rapid weakening is 
anticipated with dissipation over Central America toward the latter 
part of this week.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras overnight into Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 12.5N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 12.5N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 12.7N  87.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 13.0N  88.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 13.7N  89.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  11/1200Z 14.6N  90.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin