SPC MD 1128
MD 1128 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132229Z - 140030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated intense storms will be possible through early
evening.  Coverage is uncertain, with increasing confidence of an
organized severe threat in a few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar loops show an isolated supercell
has formed in northeast OK.  This storm is in vicinity of a remnant
outflow boundary from active convection over northern AR.  To the
southwest of the boundary, the air mass is very warm/moist and
extremely unstable with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and MLCAPE
values over 4000 J/kg.  Vertical shear is not particularly strong,
with the INX VAD profile showing 25-35 kt winds through the mid
levels, but given the high instability and the proximity to the
outflow boundary, a few rotating updrafts will remain possible
through the early evening.  These early cells will be capable of
locally damaging winds, large hail, and even perhaps a tornado. 
However, coverage of this activity is uncertain.

By mid evening, the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen which
may result in intensification.  Also, convection over central KS
will approach from the northwest.  For these reason, a watch will
likely eventually be needed for parts of the discussion area. 
Trends will be monitored.

..Hart/Gleason.. 06/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36059499 36489589 36969613 37259550 37049413 35889320
            35429327 35699444 36059499 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1128.html