000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021432
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042026
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026
 
Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery shows that while 
Douglas continues to produce bursts of convection, the convection 
is poorly organized and located mainly in a nearly linear band to 
the north of the center.  The various subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-40 kt range, and given 
the rather ragged appearance the initial intensity is held at 35 
kt. 

The initial motion is 355/5 kt.  A northward motion should continue 
for the next 12 h or so as the storm moves around the western 
periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that, the guidance generally 
agrees that Douglas should turn generally northwestward as the 
weakening cyclone is steered more by the low-level flow. The new 
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to 
the HCCA corrected consensus model.
 
Douglas is now passing over the 26C isotherm and is experiencing 
10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.  The shear is expected to 
increase as the cyclone moves over colder water, and dry air is 
likely to entrain into the circulation.  Based on this, the 
intensity guidance agrees that Douglas should weaken during the 
forecast period, becoming a depression sometime tonight, a remnant 
low sometime on Friday, and dissipating by 96 h. The new intensity 
forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 17.4N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven