Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms remains possible this evening within the
Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds will be the
primary risk, though a couple of tornadoes could occur with the most
organized storms.

...Synopsis...
A notable shortwave tough will continue moving through the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into tonight. Convective overturning from
earlier this afternoon has stabilized much of Pennsylvania/New York
into New England. Forcing for ascent from the shortwave trough and
the surface cold front will allow for isolated activity to persist
tonight. Wind damage remains possible. An MCV is evident in northern
Virginia. This will continue to promote storm development into parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Earlier activity has reduced buoyancy, but flow
fields will increase as the trough continues to approach. Wind
damage will continue to be the main threat, though a couple of
tornadoes could occur with the strongest storms. MLCAPE of 3000+
J/kg is still present within the Tennessee Valley vicinity. A
cluster of storms north of Nashville will pose the greatest risk for
damaging winds as it tracks southward into the instability axis.
Other strong to severe storms may impact parts of the eastern Great
Basin. Severe wind gusts are the concern in that region.

..Wendt.. 07/22/2026