Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN MN AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
SD...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado risk remain possible this evening across portions of North
Dakota into northern Minnesota and extreme northeast South Dakota.

...ND into northern MN...
Scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across northern MN,
while a small storm cluster (with occasional embedded supercell
structures) is moving eastward across southeast ND and extreme
northeast SD. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50
kt will continue to provide a favorable environment for organized
storms through the evening, though some increase in CINH is expected
with time. Ongoing supercell structures will continue to pose a
threat of large hail and localized severe gusts, and some tornado
threat may persist through at least dusk, given increasing low-level
shear/SRH (as observed on the KMVX VWP). Any upscale growth could be
accompanied by localized swaths of greater severe-wind threat. An
eventual weakening trend is expected late tonight, as CINH continues
to increase with time and buoyancy decreases with southeastward
extent. See MCD 1726 and MCD 1727 for more information. 

...Elsewhere...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for localized
strong to severe gusts across parts of the southern Rockies and High
Plains, southeast AZ, and the northern Great Basin into parts of
ID/western WY/southwest MT though the evening. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should continue to limit potential for a more organized
severe threat.

..Dean.. 07/25/2026