000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260235
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072026
800 PM MST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
Inner-core convection continues to wrap around Genevieve's center,
while water vapor imagery shows well-established upper-level
outflow in nearly all quadrants of the storm. The Dvorak estimate
from TAFB is up to T4.0/65 kt, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT, 
AiDT, and DPRINT estimates are between 65 and 77 kt. Based on these 
data, Genevieve is upgraded to a 70-kt hurricane.
 
Genevieve continues to move west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 13
kt, steered by stronger-than-normal mid-tropospheric ridging that
extends from the southwestern United States down into the western
Caribbean Sea. This feature will continue to steer Genevieve
west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 5 days, although
the hurricane's speed may slow down to 7-8 kt in about 3 days when
a mid-level trough develops over southern Mexico. The track
guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new NHC track forecast
is nearly unchanged from the previous forecast.
 
Genevieve's strengthening hasn't reached a rapid rate quite yet,
but it might be on the verge of doing so. The hurricane will be
simultaneously experiencing a maximum of oceanic heat content and
upper-level divergence over the next 12 hours, along with generally
light shear. The consensus of SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI)
guidance and DTOPS guidance is showing a 70-80 percent chance of a
30-kt increase over the next 24 hours, and a 55-80 percent chance
of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours. As a result, the NHC
intensity forecast continues to depict the occurrence of RI, with a
peak of 115 kt shown at 48 hours. This forecast still lies between
the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean solutions.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin by 60 hours due to a brief
increase in shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier and
more stable environment. That said, Genevieve is forecast to remain
a hurricane through day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 12.1N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 13.0N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 14.2N 110.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 15.3N 112.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 16.5N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 18.1N 116.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 19.3N 119.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  31/0000Z 20.8N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg