000
WTNT45 KNHC 011446
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has 
been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, 
Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of 
the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable 
increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and 
a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary 
layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably 
strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these 
data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial 
intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb.
 
Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional 
strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very 
warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane 
regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued 
strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard 
is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected 
that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical 
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of 
the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved 
radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional 
strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) 
beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely 
to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday.

Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the 
past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is 
northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to 
continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard 
onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this 
afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The 
updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the 
previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf 
Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the 
southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, 
especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron 
later today.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from 
High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, 
where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday 
as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this 
region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be 
possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 29.4N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 30.2N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  02/1200Z 31.2N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart