655
ABPZ20 KNHC 160513
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern
Mexico by the end of the week. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some gradual development by the weekend, and this
system could become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Gulf of California:
Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a small area of low pressure that is moving
north-northwestward over the central Gulf of California.
Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development
before the system moves inland over the state of Sonora by midday
Wednesday. Regardless of formation, periods of heavy rain and
isolated flooding are possible over that state through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Western East Pacific:
A westward-moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms well to the south of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Upper-level winds are forecast to be
unfavorable for significant development through the weekend as the
system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Some gradual development of
this system is possible early next week when it reaches the western
portion of the east Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Source:
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
