SPC MD 2302
MD 2302 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO

Mesoscale Discussion 2302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...east-central Indiana into central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161946Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds of 45-60 mph will be possible with
stronger thunderstorms developing through early evening. Overall
risk is expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the IN/OH
state border this afternoon. This activity is developing ahead of a
stalled front and on the southern periphery of stronger effective
shear located north of this boundary. Stronger heating across
east-central IN into central OH has allowed temperatures to warm
into the 80s to near 90 F amid mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in
moderate instability. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt may
allow for some storm organization. However, weak midlevel lapse
rates will limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
updrafts. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW
values could support sporadic strong outflow wind gusts. Overall,
the risk is expected to remain limited and mostly sub-severe wind
gusts are anticipated, precluding watch issuance.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40178559 40798440 40878292 40458191 40008182 39698200
            39448292 39368434 39548533 39888566 40178559 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2302.html