Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa
and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel high will persist over TX and vicinity as the current
closed low over northern CA begins to progress eastward across the
northern Great Basin.  Around the northern periphery of the TX
midlevel high, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge from
overnight convection late Thursday into Friday morning near the mid
MO Valley (NE/IA), with an associated weak wave along a slow-moving
baroclinic zone.  Assuming an MCV develops, some enhancement to wind
profiles and associated vertical shear can be expected, which would
support some organized/supercell storm potential in a narrow zone
along the path of the MCV.  Higher-based thunderstorm development
may also occur along the trailing front/wind shift into KS where
strong surface heating and deep mixing will favor inverted-V
profiles and at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the
central/northern Rockies downstream from the Great Basin midlevel
trough.  A few pockets of stronger surface heating/destabilization
could coincide with at least 30 kt midlevel flow and support the
low-end potential for strong outflow gusts.  This area will be
monitored in later updates, but the severe threat appears to be too
marginal to introduce severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Thompson.. 09/16/2026