Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential should remain low through tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the previous outlook. See the discussion
below for more details.

..Karstens/Thornton.. 10/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 02 2026/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will continue progressing eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today, as a surface cold front advances
east-southeastward over these regions and the Southeast/southern
Plains through the period. 12Z observed soundings ahead of the front
from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast show very poor lapse rates aloft
(i.e., 700-500 mb lapse rates of 4-5.5 C/km), which will likely
limit the development of any more than weak instability and hinder
overall updraft strength. While locally gusty winds could still
occur with low-topped showers/thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic
given the presence of modestly enhanced low/mid-level
west-southwesterly flow, the potential for organized clusters
capable of producing severe/damaging winds still appears low. Weaker
flow across the TN Valley and central Gulf Coast states will limit
updraft organization, but marginally greater instability should
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage through the
afternoon along/ahead of the cold front.