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Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
900 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026
 
Over the last several hours the convection in the inner core of the 
cyclone has warmed slightly, though there are occasional hints of a 
ragged eye.  Looking at the most recent microwave data, Trudy 
appears to be affected by some southwesterly shear, given the 
northeastward tilt with height in the latest WSF-M pass. The 
initial intensity for the cyclone is being held at 85 kt based on 
a combination of recent objective and subjective estimates, and 
the initial position is adjusted somewhat to the west based on the 
microwave data. 
 
The hurricane is moving generally northwestward or 325 degrees/8 
kt. The cyclone should continue to move in an overall northwestward 
motion for the next 24-36 h as a weak low- to mid-level ridge 
builds over eastern Mexico. This continued motion would bring Trudy 
close to the coast of west-central Mexico overnight and Sunday. 
Afterwards, the hurricane is expected to weaken and then 
predominately be steered by low-level flow, which will result in a 
turn toward the west-northwest away from the coast. As mentioned 
before, the initial position has been adjusted farther west, thus 
the NHC track forecast has been moved slightly west as well. The 
current track forecast is still in good agreement with the HCCA and 
GDMI forecast aids. 
 
The environment around Trudy still supports some slight 
strengthening through the night, but southwesterly shear is likely 
to keep any strengthening limited.  By midday Sunday, an increase 
in southwesterly shear along with a decrease in mid-level relative 
humidity will result in a rapid weakening for Trudy. This weakening 
trend is expected to persist even as the cyclone moves away from 
the Mexican coast, and the new NHC forecast is lower than the last 
one. The current NHC intensity forecast has Trudy become 
post-tropical around 72 h, however it is possible that the cyclone 
could become post-tropical sooner based on the ECMWF simulated 
satellite guidance.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen as it moves near the coast of
southwestern and west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Damaging
hurricane-force winds are likely within the hurricane warning area.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely
in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest 
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along 
and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and 
Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
4. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 18.2N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 19.2N 106.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 20.1N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 20.6N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 20.9N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 21.1N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 21.5N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake
 
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