SPC MD 2387
MD 2387 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA

Mesoscale Discussion 2387
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern and central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 211835Z - 212100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase through the afternoon,
especially between 20Z and 23Z. The primary concerns will be large
hail and severe wind gusts. A watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows deepening
boundary-layer cumulus evolving across parts of southern AZ --
beneath a plume of mid/high-level clouds. Over the next few hours,
continued differential heating and orographic circulations should
promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20Z-23Z time
frame. The KEMX VWP is sampling an elongated hodograph (40-50 kt of
0-6 km shear) and modest low-level hodograph curvature (albeit
weaker low-level shear compared to areas farther north). This,
combined with the destabilizing PBL, will support
discrete/semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters. Given the
expectation for separated updrafts, large to very large hail and
locally severe gusts will be the primary concerns (though a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out with any longer-lived supercells). While
timing is somewhat uncertain, a watch may eventually be needed for
parts of the area.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 10/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32340968 32401094 32691159 33351273 33641292 33841285
            33971261 34061157 34091105 34040993 33940931 33680912
            33210904 32630916 32340968 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2387.html