Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE ARK-LA-MISS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will occur from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi
Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A few
thunderstorms may produce damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...MS Valley area...
The primary surface cyclone is expected to develop
north-northeastward from eastern KS Tuesday morning to the upper MS
Valley by Wednesday morning, as the associated midlevel trough
progresses eastward and northeastward across the MS Valley well in
advance of an upstream trough approaching northern CA.  An
associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward through
the day across MO/AR.  Clouds and convection will be relatively
widespread along the front at the beginning of the period, and a
messy/QLCS convective mode will likely persist through the day.

The primary cyclone developing away from the moisture source region,
the widespread clouds/rain, and poor midlevel lapse all suggest that
warm sector buoyancy will also remain limited through the period. 
The richer low-level moisture and slightly larger buoyancy will
likely remain confined to the Ark-La-Miss, where low-level
shear/hodograph curvature is forecast to be sufficient for embedded
rotating storms capable of producing a tornado or two and isolated
wind damage.  The isolated severe threat could persist into Tuesday
night across northern MS and vicinity on the east edge of the
returning low-level moisture and near the southern extent of the
stronger low-level flow/shear.  Farther north into the mid MS
Valley, the severe threat farther north will be confined to the
strongest embedded line segments during the day.  There is a small
chance for low-topped supercells near the surface cyclone Tuesday
afternoon.

..Thompson.. 11/02/2026