Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with sporadic wind gusts and a brief tornado will
remain possible across parts of the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
Evening water vapor imagery showed an upper low over MN/WI with a
second upper low, moving from the Four Corners into the central
Rockies. A pronounced shortwave trough over MS and AL is forecast to
move eastward ahead of a belt of enhanced mid-level flow that
extends over the lower third of the CONUS between the two more
dominant upper-level cyclones. An associated surface low over the
Great Lakes will move eastward as a trailing cold front moves across
the Midwest and Southeast.

...Southeast...
Evening radar and satellite observations show a band of
predominately disorganized convection has evolved along and ahead of
the cold front from eastern TN, to south-central AL, while a more
isolated convective cluster was ongoing over eastern GA. The
environment ahead of the front remains moist, with mid 60s to low
70s F surface dewpoints across much of the Southeast. However, lapse
rates remain quite poor generally around 6 C/km (00z BMX sounding)
which, along with the loss of diurnal heating is limiting buoyancy.
Still, area RAP profiles show around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE persisting
into the evening across eastern AL and into GA, which should be
sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts.

The enhanced flow aloft is also supporting marginal deep-layer shear
(30-35 kt) for storm organization with clusters and transient
supercells having been observed. Despite deep and low-level shear
forecast to weaken overnight, modestly curved hodographs may support
occasional rotation, with a low-end risk for a brief tornado or
damaging gust this evening. Eventually storms should weaken as the
environment becomes increasingly stable over eastern GA and the
western Carolinas overnight.

..Lyons.. 11/05/2026