Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will
move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave
digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced
upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e
advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central
States through the period.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing
surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast
with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based
instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While
low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe
potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing
early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb
southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative
supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and
embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward. 

Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across
east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level
winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.
Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist
across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged
low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025