Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts are possible through midday across eastern
portions of Oklahoma and Kansas into western parts of Missouri and
northwest Arkansas.  A more broad and isolated risk for damaging
gusts and possibly a tornado will persist into tonight from the
Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.

...Ozark Plateau...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a potent, negatively
tilted shortwave trough and associated speed max/dry slot moving
northeast across the KS-OK border.  A broad moist conveyor ahead of
the upper disturbance is contributing to a plume of 50s to lower 60s
dewpoints from AR into MO ahead of a northeastward-migrating cyclone
forecast to move from KS to northern Lower MI.  A broken band of
severe thunderstorms this morning is moving rapidly northeast posing
primarily a severe-wind gust risk over western parts of the Ozark
Plateau through the midday hours.  Weaker buoyancy farther east will
be partially offset by a strong northward flux of low-level moisture
as the airmass slowly destabilizes beneath an extensive cloud
canopy.  It remains uncertain whether a focused and more
concentrated risk for severe will persist into the afternoon across
the Ozarks.  Nonetheless, an established/mature convective band may
continue to yield wind-damage potential given the strong kinematics.
 
...Lower MO Valley into the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys...
Strengthening southerly low-level flow and the intensification of a
LLJ (60-70 kt) will favor a gradual moistening from south to north
across the region through the afternoon and into the evening. 
Forecast soundings later today into this evening show enlarged
hodographs across portions of IL where meager buoyancy is eventually
forecast to develop.  Considered a small Slight-Risk but uncertainty
in buoyancy magnitude and possible convective line-parallel shear
lowers confidence for perhaps a more focused wind hazard this
evening.  However, have adjusted low-tornado probabilities farther
north into central IL to the southeast of the evolving cyclone where
weak surface-based buoyancy may develop.  

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley...
Much of the region will remain free of convection until after 04Z
when increasing low-level confluence may support isolated
thunderstorms. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be
strong enough to support the potential for a few damaging gusts.

...Southern AZ...
A shortwave trough and associated jet streak are forecast to
progress across AZ today. Scant low-level moisture will be in place
ahead of this wave but cooling mid-level temperatures and modest
mid-level moisture could still support limited buoyancy and the
potential for isolated thunderstorms. Given the robust mid-level
flow associated with this system, a few stronger gusts are possible.
However, overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 5%.

..Smith/Jirak.. 01/08/2026