SPC MD 38
MD 0038 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI

Mesoscale Discussion 0038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far
western Mississippi

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 240526Z - 241030Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the
Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi
through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1
inch/hour are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the
Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight
abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS
stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting
predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the
past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band
is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to
a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around
850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional
VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports
recent analyses and forecasts. 

Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at
around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the
precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6
hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at
around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across
the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the
onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the
order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1
inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where
CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF
amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding
upstream).

..Moore.. 01/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537
            34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112
            34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136 

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