Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE OZARK VALLEY REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered
severe/damaging winds and occasional hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening from parts of the southern/central High Plains
to the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook to account for
observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026/

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon
in a weak low-level upslope regime.  Ample heating due to the void
of cloud cover and a high sun angle will facilitate the development
of very steep lower tropospheric lapse rates.  A cluster or two is
forecast to eventually evolve this evening over southeast CO and
from the OK-TX Panhandles into far eastern NM.  Severe gusts (60-70
mph) will be the primary hazard.  Isolated hail may also occur with
the stronger cores given moderate deep-layer shear.

...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley...
An MCV near the northeast KS/southeast NE border will migrate
eastward today and serve as a forcing impetus for thunderstorms this
afternoon.  Heating in wake of earlier showers/storms will act to
destabilize the boundary layer ahead of storms forming in proximity
to the MCV.  Some modest enhancement of mid-level westerly flow may
promote organized storms, including possibly supercells, in addition
to organized clusters.  Hail and severe gusts will be the primary
hazards with this activity.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An MCV moving into the southern Appalachians will likely aid
additional convective development this afternoon over the southern
Appalachians and into the Piedmont by late afternoon.  Multicells
capable of localized damaging gusts (50-60 mph) will be the primary
threat with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts.  A somewhat
separate area of thunderstorm development is also forecast farther
north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley where multiple weak
mid-level perturbations should develop eastward in generally zonal
flow aloft.  While mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear will
be slightly stronger across this region compared to areas farther
south, instability should be weaker.  Regardless, occasional
strong/damaging winds may occur with any thunderstorm clusters that
can develop along/south of a front this afternoon across the
Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
A couple of stronger storms may develop along the sea breeze this
afternoon.  PW near 2 inches will support water-loaded downdrafts
capable of localized severe gusts and perhaps wind damage.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
along/near a weak front from parts of eastern SD and vicinity into
western MN.  Deep-layer shear will be weak and limit storm
organization but steepened lapse rates may support an isolated risk
for localized severe gusts or marginally severe hail with the
stronger cores.

...Southeast AZ...
Forecast soundings later today show 20-kt northeasterly 500-mb flow
atop weak low-level westerly flow.  This slight enhancement to flow
may aid in storm movement and some cold pool organization with the
scattered convection that develops.  Steep surface to 400-mb lapse
rates may enable a few severe gusts with the stronger cores.