Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 to Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes region on Monday and into the Northeast on Tuesday. Strong
thunderstorms associated with an isolated severe threat will be
possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon ahead of the upper-level
trough. The greatest severe potential will likely be on Monday
afternoon across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and southern
Great Lakes, where the development of moderate instability and
moderate deep-layer shear will be possible. A few strong wind gusts
and hail would be the primary threats. In order to add a threat area
for Day 4 or Day 5, model run-to-run consistency will be needed, and
confidence will need to increase concerning the instability
distribution.

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
Model solutions diverge sharply during the mid to late week time
frame. The common theme among the solutions is that a moist airmass
will be in place across the eastern half of the nation. A belt of
stronger midlevel flow is forecast across the northern tier of the
U.S. Any shortwave trough that moves eastward into the Great Lakes
region or Northeast could have potential for strong thunderstorms.
But at this time, the wide range of solutions suggest uncertainty is
considerable from Wednesday to Friday.