Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 AM CDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday. Scattered afternoon storms
are most likely across New Mexico and parts of Arizona.

...Synopsis...
A leading shortwave trough will move across the lower MO Valley
during the day and toward the OH Valley early Thursday as a
larger-scale trough amplifies into the northern Plains and upper MS
Valley. An antecedent area of high pressure over the OH Valley will
maintain dry air ahead of a weak front over IA and northern MO, with
minimal instability despite cold air aloft. A few showers and
thunderstorms may occur during the afternoon and evening across the
IA/MO/IL area, perhaps with sub-severe/small hail. 

To the west, thunderstorms will be more widespread across NM and
parts of AZ, with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE developing due to
heating beneath residual cool midlevel temperatures. Shear will be
weak, favoring general thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 10/04/2022