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#677956
Wed 30 Nov 2022 12:20:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 1985MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeast Arkansas into northern Mississippi and Middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 300019Z - 300145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A large hail threat may persist with ongoing storms over the next several hours. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance if storms can intensify further.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery indicates gradually intensifying storms across southeast AR into northwest MS, with a few 50 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft and some 1+ inch MESH streaks appearing in the past couple of hours. These storms are traversing the northwest fringe of the instability axis and on the easternmost axis of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, contributing to 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both regional VADs and 00Z mesoanalysis depict elongated, straight hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear, favoring splitting supercells with mainly a large hail threat. Ongoing storms may persist or perhaps increase in coverage and intensity for a period of time given the approach of a mid-level trough. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 32999335 33989178 35748909 36678736 36718695 36418681 35728696 35438699 34888760 33699016 33059185 32999335
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1985.html
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