SPC MD 1985
MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE



Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Arkansas into northern
Mississippi and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 300019Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A large hail threat may persist with ongoing storms over
the next several hours. Conditions are being monitored for the need
of a WW issuance if storms can intensify further.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery indicates gradually
intensifying storms across southeast AR into northwest MS, with a
few 50 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft and some 1+ inch MESH streaks
appearing in the past couple of hours. These storms are traversing
the northwest fringe of the instability axis and on the easternmost
axis of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, contributing to
1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both regional VADs and 00Z mesoanalysis
depict elongated, straight hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective
bulk shear, favoring splitting supercells with mainly a large hail
threat. Ongoing storms may persist or perhaps increase in coverage
and intensity for a period of time given the approach of a mid-level
trough. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32999335 33989178 35748909 36678736 36718695 36418681
            35728696 35438699 34888760 33699016 33059185 32999335


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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1985.html