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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Franklin, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on

Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located off the coast of North

Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Jose, located several hundred miles

east of Bermuda.



1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in

association with an elongated area of low pressure located just

west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A short-lived tropical depression

or tropical storm is expected to form later tonight or on Friday

while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the

eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):

A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles

north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing small

bursts of showers and thunderstorms to the south of its center. This

system has a short window to become a tropical depression during the

next day or so while it drifts northeastward or eastward, before

upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa

this weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual

development of this system through the middle part of next week

while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and

central portions of the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi